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“One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider.” Guy Masterson in Guys and Dolls. 

Read the scenarios below and answer the questions that follow. 

Questions

The answers are No, No, and Maybe. 

Counterfeit goods are of interest to forensic scientists* in two ways: As evidence and as an insight into how to classify things as evidence. Let’s look a little deeper at counterfeits. 

An authentic good, like the Speedy 30 in the scenarios above, is made by a manufacturer that acknowledges that the product is theirs, like Louis Vuitton. Authentic goods (or “authentics”) can be licit, legitimate products on the open market, or illicit, illegal products sold clandestinely, such as drugs. Criminals make unauthorized products, that is, counterfeits, to capitalize on the brand name and popularity of authentic goods. A counterfeit is a product made to be intentionally seen as its authentic good; like the Speedy 30s in the earlier examples. Counterfeits include forgeries (as in art, documents, or signatures), fakes (a real object that has been changed in some way to convince others that it has or has not been altered), and, technically, plagiarism (Interestingly, an authentic illicit product can still be counterfeited: pills or tablets with no active ingredients can be sold as authentic-but-illegal opioids, for example).. In the quiz scenarios, 1 and 4 constitute counterfeits. A knock-off, by contrast, is a product made to look like an authentic product. For example, the purses designed to look like a Speedy 30 in scenarios 2 and 3 are missing obvious traits or characteristics and are not offered as authentic; they are “like Louis Vuitton.” Counterfeiters have started using the word replica to move their goods online. If a replica is identical to an authentic product, it is illegal and violates trademarks or intellectual property laws. But, like in scenario 3 above, it can look like the authentic product, but not be identical to it, making it more like a knockoff. 

At some point, the sale of counterfeit goods funds organized crime or terrorism. Drug cartels, terror groups, and triads generate enormous profits to fund other legal and illegal enterprises. If a counterfeit can be made illegally for a fraction of what it sells for--and the chance of getting caught, much less conviction, is small--the risk is worth the reward. And the rewards are staggering. Global sales of counterfeit goods are estimated at USD 1.7 trillion per year, more than drugs and human trafficking. 

How is it this lucrative? Let’s say you import fake watch parts from China at a cost of $0.27 per watch; you and your “colleagues” assemble the watches and sell them to wholesalers for $12 to $20 per watch. The profit right there is between 4344% and 7307%. Those wholesalers sell the watches to dealers and vendors for $20 to $35 per watch, making between 67% and 115% on their investment. The watches get sold on the street or at markets for as high as $250. Easy money. And make no mistake: Money laundering is key to the success of criminal enterprises. 

When the average person thinks about counterfeits, they usually think of luxury goods, like watches and purses. But luxury counterfeits make up only about 4% of the total counterfeit market. Any product can be counterfeited and no product is too inexpensive to escape notice (see the Sharpie/Shoupie image from the beginning of this post). Pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts, shoe polish, foodstuffs, construction materials, military items, alcohol, and toothpaste are all examples of genuine products that have been counterfeited. The internet gives counterfeiters global market reach and lets them operate outside the national limits of law enforcement. Counterfeiters will display genuine goods on a website and then ship counterfeit goods to the consumer, making it difficult to even determine if a site is selling counterfeits. If a brand wants to pursue prosecution of a counterfeiter, they need to do so outside their local jurisdiction. And it’s not just the average online consumer: 

• The United States Department of Commerce released a study in 2011 that found counterfeit parts are involved in nearly 40% of the Pentagon's parts supply chain. 

• The US Federal Aviation Commission estimates that over a half million airplane replacement parts are counterfeit. 

• Around 250,000 children die every year from counterfeit pharmaceuticals, either because they don’t work or contain poisonous materials.

• Many more are hurt or suffer health problems due to counterfeits or knock-offs, like with the Chinese milk scandal (melamine was added to give a positive result on a quality test), which made 300,000 children ill in just one year. 

• Or the Chinese drywall that contained toxic chemicals that bled into people’s homes. 

Even a quick read about counterfeits brings up China a lot; that’s because most counterfeit goods are produced in China and counterfeiting is estimated to be 8% of China's gross domestic product; the majority % of US Customs seizures are of goods from China and Hong Kong.

Because counterfeits are so common, forensic scientists* will eventually run across them as evidence in criminal or civil cases (not to mention product liability cases). Here’s the interesting bit about counterfeits and forensic science*: Implicit in the definition of a counterfeit is the definition of the authentic version of that item. That is, because you know what this thing is NOT, you must know what it IS. By studying counterfeits, forensic scientists* can learn more about how authentic products are defined and produced, leading to better analyses and interpretations. Classification of items collected as evidence is based on the manufacturers’ classification scheme (like makes, models, and colors) as well as details discovered through forensic analysis of those authentic items and the wear and tear on the item. 

Quick fiber-geeky example. Manufactured fibers are created from a molten solution of the material in question, like nylon, polyester, or cellulose (wood pulp, in the case of fibers like acetates and rayon); this solution is called the spinning dope (I don’t make up the terms, I just define them for you). The spinning dope is pulled (extruded) through a showerhead-like device called a spinneret that forms the goo into the desired fiber shape (of which there are hundreds). It’s way more complicated than that but you get the idea; it’s like making pasta. ANYHOW, the fiber manufacturers can add materials into the spinning dope to give the fibers desired qualities. One of these is called delusterant, which, as its name suggests, de-lusters or dampens the fibers’ shininess. Fibers like acetate or triacetate, used in fancy gowns or suit jacket lining, are very bright (in textile terminology). To make these fibers less shiny, the manufacturer puts delustrant (usually finely ground rutile titanium dioxide--I said this was geeky) into the spinning dope. The particles of delustrant break up the light that hits the fiber and dampens some of its brightness. When the manufacturers put the delustrant in, they only know to put so much in per so much spinning dope and mix it while the fibers are made. To a forensic scientist*, however, looking at a fiber through a microscope, the size, distribution, and arrangement of delusterant granules can say a lot about the fiber, its manufacture, and possibly its source. The manufacturer didn’t decide on those traits, they just happened as the fiber was made.

As reported by Felix Salmon in Axios Markets, companies are now using artificial intelligence to distinguish between authentic and counterfeit goods. The premise of the technology goes like this: “Every object in the world has a unique fingerprint — and most modern cell phones have good enough cameras that they can read it.” Technologies from companies like Alitheon and Entrupy, provenance and authentication can be applied to specific mass-produced objects. The videos are pretty compelling: The technology can distinguish between plain cardboard boxes and gold bars. This technology could not only be used to register goods automatically as they are made but also register in the hands of consumers and smaller makers. Counterfeits can be deadly and they cost companies billions of dollars in lost revenue, prosecution, and liability cases. And when the counterfeits are made on the “midnight shift” and end up in the "gray market" (authentic production lines are used to create off-the-books unofficial versions), it can be virtually impossible to spot the fakes.

This technology has the potential to really shift the counterfeit fight to the side of safety, both consumer and public, and put a dent in the retail sales that fund criminals and terrorists. Next time, just buy a cheaper authentic watch. It’s much classier.

Thank you for reading Forensic Science*. This post is public so feel free to share it.

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