About - The Chalkboard
I made my first real bet on a game in 2006. It was on a college football game. Texas was playing USC in the BCS Championship Game. Even though I was still a relatively young man, still in college, I was pretty sure I knew what to do. I had watched both teams play a lot that year. Texas had Vince Young at quarterback, they’d beaten Ohio State in non-conference play…and sure that was impressive, but USC had Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush and they were freakin’ awesome. Must-watch TV. So I bet on USC, laying more than a touchdown. And Vince Young scored late in the 4th quarter to give Texas an outright victory. And late-teenage me took that about as well as you’d imagine.
Fast-forward 16 years later, through working at ESPN for a decade, producing Bad Beats with Scott Van Pelt, working at other gambling content places, hosting a radio show, writing a book…and I’m still making bets. Even though now I know more about how betting markets really work (for example, maybe the best time to bet that Texas-USC game wasn’t right before it kicked off?), and about measuring team quality a little better, and not betting on a team regardless of price just because they’re…”freakin’ awesome,” was it? Despite knowing all of that now, it’s still a lot of trial-and-error, right? You’re going to lose bets. You’re going to win bets. But I think in all cases the key is, can you learn anything from what happened? Learn something about your process. Learn something about how games work in different sports, or how different sports are really different. Getting better. Adding more tools to your toolbox, whether that’s for handicapping games or comparing prices or anticipating market movement. That’s what I’m really passionate about. Getting better. Learning!
Man…that sounds really dorky when it’s written as some kind of emphatic statement. YEAH! LEARNING! WHAT’S UP BOOK READERS IN THE HOUSE!?! But so be it. I’m kind of a dork.
Because of that dorky predisposition, and a desire to not feel like a dunce every time I make a bet (like how I felt when Vince Young scored that touchdown), I’ve built some pretty cool stuff over the years. You know how you like to unwind after a long day at the office? Yeah me too, except I do it by figuring out which teams can really win the Super Bowl, or by pricing obscure college basketball conference futures. You like to watch Netflix at night before bed? So do I, but while “Stranger Things” is on in the background, I’m trying to build a predictor for the Vezina Trophy (the NHL’s regular-season award for outstanding goaltending, which you can bet on). Hey, we’ve all got our things. This stuff’s really fun for me. And hopefully by learning more about it, it’ll be more fun (and maybe more profitable) for you too.
Writings about sports, and sports betting. Ideas, theories, bets I’ve made, bets I’ve found. A smorgasbord. Is that really spelled like that? I honestly had no idea, I thought it had an “a” like a board game. Anyway, some specific topics:
Predicting the likely champion in the NFL, college football, the NBA, the NHL, and college basketball by using historical data, as well as predicting award winners for all sports using the same methodology. This will involve the use of a franchise element known as “The Stoplight,” a visual graphic to identify valuable bets.
Evaluating relevant news stories and current information in the market to see what valuable bets exist. Key injury to a star? Crazy unexpected upset? What now? Those can be the most fun times to bet.
Creating and maintaining a set of power ratings for any sport, to help you make bets and price other markets. Ever wanted to make your own NFL point spreads? College football? I can hopefully help get you started.
I love being on “You Better You Bet.” And hopefully you enjoy my work there too. 3-7pm ET, that’s where you find me.
But there are limitations to the podcast/radio show because it’s…a radio show. We love talking about the NFL more than anything else, especially the games coming up that weekend. And each segment is maybe 10-13 minutes long before we take a commercial break. Those things in combination sometimes don’t leave room for everything else. Four hours seems like a really long time, but it’s awfully short when we’re having great conversation and talking pro and college football games for that weekend. And singing, and talking about video games, and the other fun stuff we do on there.
My goal is, that everything we do on the show is on the show, and everything I do here is here, and you’ll have to trust me, there’s MORE than enough for both things to be teeming with helpful and actionable content.
I try not to be on Twitter all the time promoting…so maybe do me a solid and recommend this to some folks? Thanks!
My hope is, this can be a really fun, hopefully profitable, and most importantly…ad-free betting experience for everyone. That’s what makes Substack great. Let’s learn more about sports together.
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