Contender Series - Week 10
Week ten marks the final week of the 2023 Contender Series. We get an extra bout added to the menu for the final episode. The fight that was cancelled last week has been moved to this week. Additionally, a contestant from earlier in the season is back to make another attempt at earning a contract.
The odds published in this article are based on DraftKings.com.
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Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Davi Bittencourt by Round 1 Submission
This fight was originally scheduled for last week’s episode. Rocha missed weight so it was pushed back a week. We were originally on Bittencourt and we like him even more after watching Rocha miss weight. Not only did Rocha come in almost five pounds over the limit, he looked like a deer in the headlights on the scale. At only twenty three years old, he might not be ready for all this. Bittencourt is a formidable grappler that’s gonna give Rocha all he can handle on the mat. If Rocha makes the slightest mistake, Bittencourt will be ready to take advantage of him.
Rocha’s record (16-1) is impressive for being only twenty three years old. He has potential but we’re convinced he isn’t ready for this level of competition. Rocha could benefit from more regional experience before attempting to get into the UFC. Even if he were to magically get a contract, he’d get tossed around in the UFC. Rocha employs a wild striking style and his grappling is all over the place. A skilled Jiu Jitsu player would submit him with ease. We like his aggressive fighting style and his finishing skills. He’s earned finishes in seven of his last eight wins. One of his keys to success is managing his stamina.
We were not able to watch film on Bittencourt. Our evaluation of him is based on his record and how he appeared at weigh-ins last week. He looked confident and appeared to be in phenomenal shape.
Due to the lack of film for Bittencourt and the youth of Rocha, we’ll have limited action involving this bout.
Betting Strategy: Fight does NOT go the distance and Bittencourt by submission.
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Marquel Mederos by Decision
Mederos is a switch stance kickboxer that does his best work with his hands. He’ll mix in some lower leg kicks but he does his best work with his hands. Mederos won’t initiate any wrestling and prefers to operate on his feet. He’s displayed good takedown defense which will be tested against Isakov. Mederos appears to have crisper striking with more power on the end of his strikes. One area he could improve is his defensive hand placement and head movement. He eats basic straight punches that could be easily avoided.
Isakov is from Luxembourg and now based out of Belgium (according to Tapology.com). He has a balanced fighting style that includes effective wrestling. Isakov will look to take the fight to the mat to slow down the forward pressure of Mederos. He knows that Mederos prefers a stand-up fight so it makes sense for Isakov to explore takedown opportunities. Our biggest critique of Isakov is his lack of speed. His most recent opponents weren’t nearly as quick as Mederos. Isakov would be wise
Will the athleticism of Mederos pose a problem or will Isakov’s wrestling win the day? They are both patient fighters that slowly build up to a finish. Maybe the safest bet for this bout is the over 2.5 rounds.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds and the fight goes the distance.
Middleweight 185 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Torrez Finney by Round 1 KO
Finney is built like a fire hydrant. He wastes no time going after his opponents and will initiate a takedown within seconds. At twenty five years of age, he has tons of upside. Finney’s aggressive fighting style makes his fights short and sweet. Of his six pro wins, five of them were by knockout. He lowers the boom on opponents once he takes them down. Notably, he does have an impressive head and arm triangle choke as an amateur. The main concern we have with Finney is his strength of schedule. The combined record of all of his opponents (pro) is 20-36.
Panferov is a Russian grappler that likes to overpower opponents in the clinch and then bully them on the ground. Much like Finney, he has faced inferior competition. The combined record of Panferov’s last three opponents is 14-23. All six of his wins were inside the first round (pro). Panferov will enjoy about five inches in height over Finney. The height difference probably won’t impact the outcome of the fight. If anything, it might influence the moneyline after faceoffs.
Regardless of the winner, it’ll be surprising if this goes the distance. We’re expecting a first round finish. If it somehow gets to the second round, one of them is likely to gas out.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds, Panferov by round one submission and Finney inside the distance.
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Connor Matthews by Round 1 Submission
Farias is a long fighter that enjoys working at distance. He’s listed at 5’11 on most MMA sites yet he looks much taller on film. His striking is fluid and he throws a wide range of kicks and punches. When he is in the zone he overwhelms the enemy with combinations. His takedown defense needs work. At times, he displays good takedown defense. Other times he gets easily taken down. Once he’s on his back, he has a difficult time getting up. Farias needs to keep it standing as much as possible. Based on film study, his cardio isn’t his strong suit. He slows down considerably after the first round.
Matthews was on Contender Series last season where he lost by decision to Francis Marshall. It was a closely contested fight. Matthews has legit Jiu Jitsu which is quickly apparent when you look at his resume. Four of his seven wins are by rear naked choke. Matthews will mix it up with Farias in hopes of creating a grabbling exchange. As soon as the fight hits the mat, he’ll be live for a submission. Considering that Farias is vulnerable on the ground, this is a convenient match-up for Matthews.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Matthews by submission.
Flyweight 125 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Andre Lima by Decision
Lima is a Brazilian kickboxer with lethal striking. Five of his last six wins were by knockout within the first two rounds. Prior to his MMA career, he was an accomplished kickboxer. Though he has a Muay Thai style, he’ll chase submissions from time to time. The longer it is at kickboxing range, the more it favors Lima.
Zenidim is an active fighter with strong grappling. He’s earned five submission wins over his last eleven MMA fights. This will mark his sixth bout in the last two years. Zenidim should have a noticeable advantage on the ground.
They both have the tools to win and neither of them has a major deficiency. Ultimately, this is a coin flip.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds.
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Cortavious Romious by Round 1 Submission
Taveras was on the show earlier this season, week 5. It’s a little surprising they are bringing him back. First of all, he was knocked out about a month ago. Secondly, why can’t the UFC find a fresh contestant? No offense to Taveras, but he already had his shot. It makes you wonder if the UFC is having a hard time finding contestants. We recently did an interview with a fighter that told us they turned down a spot on the Contender Series because of the compensation. The rumored pay for Contender Series is $1,500 - $2,500 to appear and another $1,500 - $2,500 as a win bonus. If that’s the case, it’s barely enough to cover the trip and coaches. The UFC does not pay for the hotel, airfare or medical evaluations. Those expenses are deducted from the fighter’s earnings. In essence, the contestants are fighting for free just like on the Ultimate Fighter.
Taveras is a southpaw that utilizes a kickboxing style. His striking is sharp. He sets up his power punches with clean jabs and effective faints. When Taveras connects, his opponents feel it. Without question, his striking is his best weapon. The biggest knock on Taveras is his durability. Including his last match, he’s been knocked out twice in the first round. It’s not that surprising when you look at his hand placement and lack of head movement. His chin is often wide open as well. Taveras will have a few inches of height and reach over Romious.
Romious is a powerful wrestler that crushes the opposition on the ground. He’s earned finishes in all seven of his wins (pro). His last three wins were by submission. He lost his only fight by split decision to Jornel Lugo (2022). Lugo fights for Bellator and has looked solid as a pro (8-2). Though the Lugo fight was three years ago, it’s an indicator of Romious’s skill level. Romious is going to close the distance quickly in an attempt to take Taveras down. He’s been to decision multiple times so he has the stamina to go the distance. If Romious snatches up a first round submission, it’ll be his fourth consecutive first round submission. Taveras has a nasty guillotine choke though. Romious should be mindful of where he places his head.
We are genuinely concerned that Taveras hasn’t had enough time to recover. Let’s hope he doesn’t sustain another knockout. Another head injury in a short period of time (weeks) is exactly how athletes develop CTE.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance, the fight ends by submission and Romious to win.
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