Could Bowl Game Opt-Outs Be Eliminated?
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Hey friends,
With April in the rearview mirror, the college football regular season is less than four months away.
Although bowl season wrapped up four months ago on the backend, altering its schedule and operational structure is still on the minds of prominent voices who govern the sport.
Last year, the postseason campaign included 43 bowl matchups, highlighted by the four-team College Football Playoff.
Since the bracket’s inception, bowl games have become immensely devalued for high-level prospects with NFL Combine invites and early-round contracts on the line.
As a result, 78 players opted out of bowl games last season to avoid injury in their final contest donning their collegiate threads.
Another 431 players entered the transfer portal before their postseason games last December.
Whether those players would’ve impacted the gridiron action or not, it’s clear that the system needs an overhaul.
Five days ago, Bowl Season Executive Director Nick Carparelli noted that players could be “forced” to play in bowl games moving forward to preserve the prestige of college football’s postseason.
Let’s dive into how Carparelli envisions mandating this regulation, and how it could impact the future of bowl season moving foward:
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Jared Verse, and Chop Robinson all opted out of their postseason bouts last bowl cycle.
What do all of the prospects above have in common? They all blossomed into first-round NFL Draft picks about two weeks ago.
Similarly, each player noted received hefty NIL payments courtesy of collectives.
From USC, LSU, UNC, Florida State, and Penn State, each school with high-level opt-outs listed possesses no shortage of deep-pocketed donors.
Carparelli believes that all schools will eventually bring NIL collectives “in-house,” in conjunction with revenue sharing.
When players are finally entitled to a cut of each conference’s media rights deal, players could then receive reworked, binding contracts in exchange for further NIL payments.
Within those contracts, Carparelli thinks there could be a stipulation that players would be compelled to play in every game without the chance to opt-out.
If they were to opt-out, the contract and ensuing compensation would be void or minimized.
"If you sign a contract and receive compensation, you're obligated to perform certain duties," Carparelli said through ESPN. "In this case, play 12 regular-season games and a bowl game, or a bowl game and the playoff. That's logical to expect. It's the way the rest of us working folks operate."
Carparelli’s plea for change through a collective bargaining agreement has since gained support from several conference commissioners and NCAA president Charlie Baker.
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Yes, Carparelli’s plan is feasible.
However, it may not happen as soon as this year.
Last week, ESPN’s Dan Murphy and Pete Thamel reported that there are “deep discussions” regarding a legal settlement that would finally grant NCAA athletes a right to revenue sharing.
The NCAA is currently fighting the House of Representatives, which claims that the organization is breaking the law by potentially placing restrictions on how much money student-athletes can earn from NIL.
Now, several athletic directors and conference commissioners are on board with reaching a settlement that would encourage a modern NCAA business model.
Let’s take a look at the ESPN report, penned by Thamel and Murphy:
“While sources stressed that no deal is imminent, details about what a multi-billion-dollar settlement could look like are expected to be shared with campuses in the near future,” it said. “There are myriad variables to get to the finish line and still some obstacles and objections at the campus level, but sources indicate that progress has ramped up in recent weeks.”
The two analysts project that the “top-end revenue share number” would likely amount to $20 million per year per school.
From there, the schools would then choose exactly how much to allocate to each varsity sport and each athlete, individually.
This year, Ohio State was rumored to spend $13 million on retooling its roster through player retention and acquiring blue-chip portal products.
If each school Power Four school was granted $20 million from conference media rights agreements alone, the days of collective subscriptions and fundraising initiatives would become icing on the cake.
The playing field would become more level than ever before.
Both forms of payment would become contractual, and players could be required to play each matchup to be paid in full.
While Carparelli’s estimation initially appears to be a long shot, it’s certainly possible based on the introduction of revenue sharing and an NIL overhaul.
If you have any questions, comments, or feedback, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me by email at adam@brenemanmedia.com.
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Shoutout to Connor Krause for helping to write this newsletter and putting it together!
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