Democrazy (January 12, 2024) - by Richard Haass
Welcome to Home & Away. I have been away but now am back home, so jetlag aside, I feel well-positioned to tackle this week’s edition.
A lot of political news, mostly on the Republican side. Wednesday night’s debate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis did neither of them much good. Again, without appearing on the debate stage, Donald Trump was the winner. It helps him that Fox News has clearly decided that if you can’t beat him, join him, and has all but signed up for Trump and his campaign by welcoming him back with a softball-filled on-air conversation in front of a friendly audience at the same time as the debate.
The rest of the week was not as good for Trump. Yes, he is all but certain to win this coming week’s Iowa caucus handily, but the following week’s New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be competitive, especially now that Chris Christie has dropped out, which should help Nikki Haley’s chances. It also looks that Trump’s legal effort to get charges dismissed on the grounds he has unconditional immunity absent impeachment, even for crimes including murder, received the skeptical, if not derisive, hearing it deserved.
One last item about Donald Trump. My friend John Ellis (who curates the Substack daily newsletter News Items) tells me that Steve Bannon (who seems to have as much influence over Trump as anyone) is pushing hard for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to be his vice-presidential choice. It makes sense if you think about it. RFK as an independent candidate would draw votes from Trump, but on Trump’s ticket he would bring in votes, including some that might otherwise go to Biden. As for its impact on the Kennedy legacy, well, that goes without saying.
It was a pretty good week for President Biden even if his Secretary of Defense did him no favors by going AWOL. Biden finally went on the political offensive, giving two speeches (one in Pennsylvania and another in South Carolina) that went after Trump and made clear that the future of American democracy will be on the line, even if it is not on the ballot, this November. This is right and smart, as Biden will have difficulty winning if the election turns into a referendum on him, even though the economic numbers and prospects are pretty good.
Why won’t a version of “It’s the economy, stupid” work for Biden? For starters, the increase in food prices and interest rates on mortgages will not disappear entirely between now and November. Meanwhile, Biden is not getting any younger, and the border is not getting harder to cross. Prospects for doing something about immigration are small given Democratic Party politics (which make it hard for the president to take on progressives already unhappy over Gaza and much else) and Republican politics (which provide little incentive to resolve an issue that hurts the president and Democrats across the board during an election year).
Speaking of democracy, two things beyond Biden’s Valley Forge address merit mention. I link here to an article by Thomas Edsall, who regularly produces thoughtful, carefully researched and written essays on American democracy for the New York Times. It is a sober piece, with quotes from yours truly and others detailing the troubled state of American democracy (as well as many of this country’s other institutions) and how this predicament emerged. A somewhat more upbeat response to what ails us is the PBS documentary Preserving American Democracy (based on The Bill of Obligations), which focuses on education and voter turnout as near-term remedies. It is available to watch here.
As for Away, I spent the week in Australia and Singapore. No one talks much about their own country’s politics. Instead, the world is obsessed with ours. There is widespread frustration with the reality that they cannot influence what happens here in November but will be profoundly influenced by it regardless. Friends everywhere are worried about a Trump victory and what it would mean for their security given his affection for autocrats and his dislike of both democracies and U.S. alliances with them. Virtually every government is having conversations about how to hedge against Trump 2.0.
Beyond matters of policy, people around the world look at us and literally shake their heads. They cannot square what they are seeing and hearing with the America they thought they once knew. Trump is a big part of it, but beyond our political dysfunction, our gun culture and a good deal else are adding to their overall dismay.
This is not to say that they are wildly enthusiastic about Biden. They are not. Many believe he has not done enough to rein in Israel. As I travel around Asia and the world more broadly, I find, too, that most government officials and foreign policy observers are disappointed and then some with the Biden administration’s abandonment of what little trade policy it still had in the run up to the November 2023 APEC meeting in San Francisco. Also worrying to others are the mounting signs of an emerging American bipartisan consensus around industrial policy and increased protectionism. Here, the Biden administration’s recent decision to review Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel is a case in point. There is no valid national security or economic argument for blocking this purchase by Japan, one of our closest allies, a transaction that among other things would make steel produced here more competitive. As with trade policy, this is about domestic politics, pure and simple.
Speaking of which, if trade is one area where there is more continuity than change between the Trump and Biden presidencies, China policy is another. Here too there is more than a little concern amongst allies for whom China is their largest economic partner. They are worried about what they perceive as overly restrictive and aggressive U.S. policy regarding trade and investment, which they believe is counter-productive given China’s large role in the global economy and unlikely to succeed in limiting China’s technological advancement. There is also the argument that China’s dependence on international trade deters Beijing from initiating a war over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, but if it becomes more insular and autarkic that deterrent would weaken. Relatedly, they fear a confrontational U.S. economic policy increases the risk that the U.S.-China relationship deteriorates to the point of conflict, something that would be ruinous for our allies and the global economy more generally.
Otherwise, Taiwan’s election is this Saturday. It is hard to make a firm prediction since polling stops as a matter of law ten days out and the last results showed a close race, although the current vice president, William Lai, holds a small lead and has consistently been ahead. (We are unlikely to adopt that polling provision here, but it might not be a bad idea.) I tend to agree with the argument of my colleague David Sacks, who writes in Foreign Affairs that none of the three presidential candidates will embark on a radical path that would trigger a dramatic, i.e., armed, Chinese response, or pursue a closer political relationship with Beijing. That’s not to say that Beijing does not care about the result and is not watching closely. It has made its preference for the opposition KMT clear, and if Lai emerges victorious, China will likely respond with heightened economic, military, and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan. Taiwan, for its part, regardless of who becomes its next president, will seek closer relations with the United States, Japan, and the West. How Xi Jinping responds to such a development is the big question.
Finally, a few words about the Middle East. The good news is that at long last Israel’s government has adopted a military strategy for Gaza that approximates the more calibrated approach that the United States has argued for from the outset. The rest of the news is less good. There is still no realistic plan for long-term governance of Gaza and no political track to address legitimate Palestinian political aspirations, although Tony Blinken’s announcement of a renewed Saudi willingness to normalize ties with Israel if such a track were created is a welcome development.
What is unwelcome is that the possibilities for a widening of this war keep rising. The United States and a coalition of others took action (correctly I would add) to degrade Houthi capacity to interfere with Red Sea shipping. The question is whether Houthi attacks continue and, if so, whether and how the United States and its partners respond. There is no desire to get involved inside Yemen, which would leave attacks on Iranian military assets or shipping as the principal escalatory option should additional strikes against the Houthis not deter them. Also raising the risk of war-widening is the steadily advancing Iranian nuclear program (which is close to a level termed unacceptable in the past) and growing friction along Israel’s border with Lebanon, which has made it impossible for close to one hundred thousand Israelis to return to their homes.
And in saving the least for last, a final reference to golf in Australia. I squeezed in a third round before leaving at Yarra Bend, a nice municipal course in Melbourne. I carded an 85, which is not bad for me. It’s amazing how much better one does if you play more frequently and avoid, or at least limit, three-putts, double bogeys, and anything out of bounds.
Three other takeaways. Australians tend to putt out their putts and not accept gimmies. It slows things down but probably makes for better golfing (as you have to do it in tournaments) and friendships, since it is always an awkward moment when you ask someone to putt a two-footer. Second, golf carts are called buggies. Still, I dislike them and refuse to use them whenever possible as the exercise is beneficial, you see the course better, and walking is a good way to undo the emotional effect of a bad shot. Third, be on notice that if you order an Arnold Palmer (which I tend to do as it provides a perfect post-round drink with its mix of lemonade and iced tea) you will get a quizzical stare followed by, “What’s an Ahnold Pahlma, mate?” Clearly not all aspects of golf have gone global.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Wednesday, January 10: New York Times on decline in common American identity. PBS History with David Rubenstein on The Bill of Obligations.
Check out The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens
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