PicoBlog

I think it's actually an ideal time to make long range prediction regarding BRICS, considering we have now two decades of additional information on the people who originally made proclamations regarding BRICS, and over a decade's worth of time to see how it has played out since becoming a more formalized association. Plenty of time to see where the lines are being drawn and what it can actually accomplish as a unit.

As far as a desire to break free of US influence, that's something everyone has. Every country wishes to be sovereign, every politician wishes to call the shots, every man wishes to be King. What truly matters is the capability for this to become the case, rather than the desire itself. BRICS as an association itself doesn't show much in that capacity, really.

India remains bound to the US through immigration if nothing else, South Africa continues to suffer demographic collapse and looks more and more like Zimbabwe every day. Brazil I don't know enough of to make any sweeping statements, Russia has both lost its influence in the West and proven its military security at the same time. China continues to rise of its own accord, but remains untested and shows no geopolitical savvy the way the US has. Internally this very loose association still proves itself directionless, and that is a problem if it's going to speed up the invariable collapse of the West's hegemony.

The Russians have proven themselves on the battlefield, but only truly to themselves. The information others see is one saturated with propaganda and a lack of clarity, and certainly, have no guarantees of efficacy against NATO's full potential. And much more troublesome than that, is that regardless of capability, Russia has lost some of its global influence in the process of this war, as the US has been able to maneuver well elsewhere; Look at the Saudis, Vietnam, and the Niger situation. Russian Foreign Policy is not proceeding with great effectiveness at the moment. And due to the Su-35 deal with Iran falling through, Russia has made itself seem a bad partner to pair with for obtaining exports - And this is something that will prove difficult to rectify. Matters of export are still as much as a few years away depending on the course of this war as well, and the time this gives the US to act may prove quite troublesome.

In addition, Russia either never had, or recently lost a very important asset with the death of Prigozhin. Though his ancestry left him suspect, they would have been able to use Wagner much more boldly if they could maintain the idea of them having had rogue leadership. Korobochka/Cirnosad accurately surmised that to make progress on the global front, Russia would require an analogue to America's own state-backed terrorist groups. And for now, they may have lost that. Time will tell if they can act with the political coherence, forethought, and speed needed to re-acquire this asset. But if they can't, and I suspect they can't, it will not do them any favors.

As one example, one could imagine that any country seeking Russian imports will have to contend with three complications:

One, that they may be angering the US in doing so. Few countries can effectively counter prolonged CIA campaigns, and smaller, less stable countries have little hope of it. All the guns, jets, AD, and tanks in the world mean nothing if they eventually end up in the hands of foreign-backed revolutionaries, or you end up getting terror campaign'd for the next decade.

Second, that Russia may not deliver. Yet again, the Iranian problem persists here. Iran should have been an important priority for Russia, but they failed to capitalize on that interest. This will probably cost them in its own way, as I alluded to with its issues in global influence, but it serves as another obstacle to buyers; You can buy all the guns, jets, AD, and tanks in the world, but what good are they if they never arrive?

And third, even if these weapons do arrive, they have not proven themselves against NATO's full arsenal. Now, this is something very unimportant on its own; The Soviets exported tons of weapons despite this. And it's likely that they are quite effective nevertheless. But, this is a straw that can easily break the camel's back; You aren't sure the weapons will arrive, you may be the target of espionage if you do buy them, AND they might not even be effective if NATO decided to come knocking? It is not ideal.

Thuslyly, I believe it's likely that only countries who have no better opportunities to seek will pursue exports from Russia. If the US uses the time they have been given with any skill, they can minimize the number of these countries, and hamper those who they cannot minimize.

As for Sanctions, true and not true.

Sanctions did not cause significant economic harm for Russia, nor would they ever have, nor did they 'strengthen' it in any meaningful way either; Russia's own internal policies have neither failed nor succeeded tremendously in the face of it. It is safe to say that they held up, but at the cost of influence: Russia has lost much of its ability to influence Europe economically. This is not a crippling blow, nor even really significant on its own, but it secures something for the US, and once again leaves them with the initiative.

This, however, was an outcome that had become inevitable over 10 years ago. Realistically, this cost wasn't ever avoidable most like.

Cultural unity and national identity aren't very important, despite popular thoughts; They've never been terribly so, as they are downstream of far more integral, important, and above all, tangibly real factors: Ancestry.

What ultimately matters as a result are demographics, and little else. In this regard, Russia and China are finely positioned compared to the West. Although they suffer from abhorrent birth rates, their actual ethnic and racial distributions are largely unchanged, unlike the West's.

And the West *will* be destroyed by its own collapsing demographics. A side factor of this, like as not, is that many countries in South America and all those in Africa will experience cascading issues as a result, since they've been largely dependent on the West to function, even at as low a level as they do.

However, the West's leadership of rootless cosmopolitans both want, and intend this. In truth, having the European people go extinct benefits nobody but them, and perhaps China. This may also pose an issue for Russia in the long-term; If they should become the last of the Europeans, then the Russian people can expect to be treated to the same eventual fate. The rest of the world will hold no sympathies for them.

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