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After 32 years, a staple diet of modern European footballing tradition concludes this midweek. Starting out as two 4 team groups where both top-placed sides made the inaugural final back in 1992/93, the final-ever Champions League group stages are played on December 12th/13th 2023. Actually present since 1991/92, the old European Cup’s final season before its Champions League rebranding, current fans across age group varying from teenagers to 35-45 years old grew up with such a familiar format. 2024/25 sees the famous format disappear forever, replaced with the controversial 36 team “Swiss-System” league, where each participant plays a batch of eight league games.

As the curtain comes down, 7 of this campaign’s 8 groups still have something to play for, be it group winners, knockout-round qualification, Europa League knockout qualification or in some groups a combination of more than one of the above. One such example is Group A, Bayern Munich are safely through as group winners, however, Manchester United, FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray SK are all locked in a fascinating battle for 2nd place. The Red Devils face off against an already-qualified Bayern at Old Trafford knowing a win is the only way to prolong their adventures in UEFA’s top tier competition into the spring. Nonetheless, as Linkin Park once sung, in the end a Manchester United victory will not even matter providing a winner emerges in the other group clash between the Danish and Turkish outfits.

At the time of the final group stage draw in August, many viewed this clash at Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium as an archetypical final group matchday dead-rubber. Now, owing to the carelessness throughout this group stage of the Old Trafford outfit, a reserved Round of Sixteen spot for the winner turns it into the unlikeliest game of the matchday. To add further spice, Copenhagen, level on points with Galatasaray but ahead on a goal-difference tiebreaker cannot risk playing for a draw, as such a result combined with a Manchester United victory sends The Red Devils through. A cocktail of drama across all angles as on-the-night devastation for the losers mixes with potential inconsolability of a rare opportunity about to turn ever more seldom.

Written as a painful and ironic reminder of Scotland’s failure to ever escape a FIFA World Cup group stage, Del Amitri’s “Dont Come Home Too Soon” the Official 1998 Scotland World Cup song proved a devastating future cryptic clue. Scotland did come home early once again in the 1998 group stages and haven’t returned to international football’s most prestigious competition since. FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray have presided over recent Champions League group stage participations, yet like The Tartan Army both tend to come home early.

In the last decade (excluding 2023/24) FCK participated in three group stages, finishing bottom twice, once dropping into the Europa League knockouts with a 3rd placed finish. Gala on the other hand, played a role in five group stages during the same timeframe, finishing bottom once and third place on three occasions. Exactly a decade ago in 2013/14, Gala’s fifth completed campaign saw them reach the Round of Sixteen, where they lost to Chelsea FC. This being the last time Cimbom secured Champions League knockout football, for their Danish rivals, the drought stretches back to 2010/11, where like Gala, Chelsea ended FCK’s run in the last sixteen.

Gala and FCK were up against history the second both were paired into the same group as two European heavyweights. In 20 completed Champions League group stages under the competition’s current format, just 29 sides outside of Europe’s Big Five leagues have made the knockout rounds if paired in a group with two sides or more from Big Five leagues. If one excludes what many refer to as the “Middle Two” leagues of Portugal and Netherlands, two leagues not at the Big Five’s level but historically at a far higher than other non Big Five leagues, this figure drops to just 15 sides over 20 years. Based on such low figures given there are 8 groups in each Champions League edition, qualification for the knockout rounds for either Gala or FCK would give either a huge sense of pride.

In addition, the co-efficient battles come into play for this tie. After an initial strong start to 2023/24 in European competitions, Turkey has fallen off the rails recently, with Fenerbahce still not qualified for the Conference League knockout rounds and Besiktas eliminated from the same competition. Whereas Denmark is also under pressure for points as they only have two representatives remaining in European club competitions, the other being FC Nordjaelland in the Conference League.

Allocations for the reformed 2024/25 Champions League see domestic champions from UEFA’s top 10 ranked associations automatically qualify for the league stage. Associations ranked 11th to 14th at the end of 2023/24 also see their domestic champions make the final play-off qualification round. Turkey currently sits 9th in the UEFA coefficients, with a gap of 3.8 coefficient points from 11th placed Czech Republic. Denmark rank 15th at present with no chance to gatecrash the top 10 rankings, yet will be keen to get into the 11th to 14th ranked batch to give their domestic champions a better chance to make next season’s league phase. The gap between the Danish Super Liga and 14th placed Norwegian Eliteserien currently stands at a wafer-thin 0.175 points.

With Galatasaray or Copenhagen on the brink of overachieving in this season’s Champions League competition by virtue of a surprise knockout round qualification, both are inclined to maximise such opportunities. Reforms to European club competition from 2024/25 onwards will only add an extra difficulty layer to seeing a Danish or Turkish side participate in the Round of Sixteen. Whilst commendable to see both Gala and FCK go into the final matchday with qualification in their own hands, both have been unquestionably helped by Manchester United’s own deficiencies.

No matter how many nostalgic lookbacks one might possess, financial considerations mean the days of the two-legged straight knockout UEFA cup competitions will not return. Middle-ranked European league sides have a harder task to make the Champions League knockout rounds from the group stages, a mix of maintaining consistency over six group games alongside the safety blanket said games provide for an underperforming European giant being the reason. Nonetheless, more difficult does not mean impossible, as Benfica impressively showed last season, topping a group containing Paris St Germain and Juventus. PSV Eindhoven qualified for this season’s knockouts, overcoming a much-higher budgeted Europa League winning Sevilla side along the way.

In their current format and taking into account the power of the elite clubs, the Champions League group stages are a good compromise that suit most parties. Sides from mid-ranked European leagues’ knockout qualification tasks are harder, nonetheless, not impossible. Fans of said clubs get three home European games with at least one elite side set to visit, sparking magic nights much in the same way when a Premier League giant plays away at lower league opposition in the FA Cup 3rd Round. The six group games allow a safety blanket for European football’s giants in light of poor Matchday 1/2 results, yet not one that stretches too far, see Manchester United this campaign and Chelsea being the only defending champions to exit the Champions League group stages in 2012/13 as examples.

Reforms for 2024/25 and beyond risk creating a Champions League last sixteen permanently the preserve of “Big Five” league sides and no one else. Of the 36 spots for the 2024/25 edition, its likely 24 will be taken by English, French, German, Italian and Spanish sides given two extra spots for highest league coefficient are likely to go to two of the “Big Five” leagues. Six group games being replaced by eight league games with teams now ranked in one big league format kills opportunities for a Benfica or Ajax to be ranked amongst the top eight clubs, soon to be the only way to guarantee a place in the new format’s Round of Sixteen. Should mid-ranking European league sides manage to finish between 9th and 24th in the “Swiss-system” league format, they will have to negotiate an extra additional two games by virtue of a play-off to reach the last 16, a play-off most likely against a “Big Five” league side.

Both Copenhagen and Galatasaray have not yet put an underperforming Manchester United out of their misery over six group games. Over eight league games, the difficulty will only increase, both would be inclined to take this opportunity to make the Round of Sixteen. It may well prove to be their last realistic opportunity given the competition format change.

If introducing additional road-blocks to middle-ranking European league sides which cement an ever-growing elitism to UEFA club competitions is bad enough, its only the tip of the iceberg for how ill-thought out these reforms are. The first major problem is the removal of simplicity, 32 teams divided into eight groups of four teams is a format proven to work. All but one group still having something to play for come Matchday Six’s fixtures in the 2023/24 edition gives you all the evidence you need. FIFA’s expanded 48 team 2026 World Cup will contain four team groups despite initial group stage reform plans, world football’s governing body forced into a U-turn after viewing how popular final group games played simultaneously were with supporters.

The “Swiss-system” reforms also come into play for both Europa & Conference Leagues, these two competitions attracting a more diverse set of country representatives comparative to the Champions League. Whilst Matchdays 7 and 8 in the Conference League will be played by the end of December, this is not the case for both Champions League and Europa League. Both will see their final matchdays played in late January, a month never before used for UEFA club competition football. A month which causes severe complications for domestic competitions across Europe.

One look at the 2023/24 Europa League sees clubs from Serbia, Czech Republic, Austria, Norway and Sweden all participating, just a season earlier in 2022/23, Finland’s HJK Helsinki also participated in the competition’s group stages. The common denomination with all these countries, all operate significant varying length winter breaks to their domestic programmes between December and March. These winter breaks being either a mid-season break for leagues operating an autumn to spring season format or an end-of-season break for summer leagues.

Under the current format for UEFA club competitions, the final two Europa/Conference League matchdays are on 30th November 2023 and 14th December 2023. By the time HJK Helsinki played even their 4th Conference League group game, a 1-0 home loss against Eintracht Frankfurt on 9th November 2023, they had already had a 19 day playing break from their final domestic Veikkausliiga match on 21st October 2023. The Finnish champions had to organise a friendly match against Swedes BK Hacken on December 7th 2023 to keep their players in shape fitness-wise for a dead-rubber Matchday 6 Conference League fixture against PAOK.

Extending the pre-knockout Matchdays from six to eight alongside stretching said fixtures into January causes even greater complications for Nordic sides such as HJK. Owing to meteorological conditions and sub-zero weather, its no exaggeration to say playing home games in Finland in January represents a challenge. Matchdays 6,7 and 8 in the 2024/25 Europa League are penciled in for 12th December 2024, 23rd January 2025 and 30th January 2025. Thus in the event of HJK qualifying for the 36 team league format 2024/25 Europa League, they would be forced to play their final three matchdays away from home. A complication which hinders knockout round qualification chances, eats into recovery time and forces scrambling around to find friendly match opponents to stay in shape on ever-longer & pricier off-season overseas training camps.

The 2023 Norwegian domestic football season finished last weekend with Molde winning the Norwegian Cup final 1-0 against Bodo/Glimt courtesy of a 89th minute Frederik Gulbrandsen winner. A result which qualified them for the 2024/25 Europa League qualification rounds, concluding a campaign which began on 20th January 2023 with a 2-0 pre-season friendly defeat against Viktoria Plzen at La Nucia, Spain. Juxtaposing such a date for a first pre-season friendly onto the 2024/25 calendar would not be ideal for Matchday 7 of the new UEFA club competitions format. Starting a pre-season winter training camp immediately after New Year’s Day, flying out of & back into said camp for two final pre-knockout European games alongside a potential play-off round game in mid-February all leads to more disjointed pre-season preparation.

For a side such as Austria’s Red Bull Salzburg, the current format of finishing the UEFA competition group stages in December with a pause until mid-February before the knockout rounds began proved challenging. Often the first leg of a Champions League or Europa League knockout tie is the first competitive game after a long domestic season winter break. In these matches, after so long without playing a competitive game, Salzburg struggle against teams who deploy shorter winter breaks, thus being more up to speed from a match fitness standpoint. These new reforms will penalise sides like Salzburg even more, harming them in the league stage format before the knockout rounds begin.

The complications even go beyond summer leagues and other competitions with a long mid-season winter break. In England, throughout the EFL Cup’s entire 63 year history, the semi-finals have comprised two-legged ties. However, owing to the UEFA club competition’s format changes and the EFL Cup taking place midweek, potential scheduling issues have forced the English authorities into reform. From 2024/25, EFL Cup semi-finals will now just be one-legged ties, likely to be played at a neutral venue. A reform which further weakens an historic competition, permanently alters a traditional mid-winter midweek treat from England’s football calendar alongside creating logistical nightmares for fans travelling to a neutral venue midweek.

Not only will the EFL Cup suffer, but its older and more prestigious twin will also see its prestige and tradition eroded due to unnecessary UEFA competition format changes. Historically, January is a month where FA Cup fever spreads across England, third round weekend is a yearly-highlight on the domestic calendar, finally 3rd & 4th round midweek replays over the years have produced many a memorable tie or upset. Alas, extra midweeks needed for the expanded UEFA club competitions will see FA Cup replays scrapped completely from the 2024/25 campaign, another blow for a competition very much in the Premier League’s shadows in the modern era. Like mid-to-smaller ranked European leagues getting a raw deal through UEFA competition reforms, lower league sides in England get a raw deal through no more access to financially-lucrative 3rd & 4th Round replays. As an example of how transformational replays are, then-financially troubled Exeter City reportedly received nearly GBP 700,000 in receipts from a 3rd round replay against Manchester United in January 2005.

January is very much a domestic cup month, a period to break from UEFA club competitions, where lower league opposition taking on traditional footballing powerhouses in the FA Cup 3rd round still encapsulates everything unique about England’s footballing pyramid. The presence of extra UEFA club competition matches in this month now further reduces what shine the FA Cup once had. Spain’s Copa del Rey reforms which moved it to a one-legged format from 2019/20 onwards have revitalised the competition. The 2022/23 edition saw three midweek rounds played in January to really encapsulate Spain’s footballing scene in cup-fever. Like the FA Cup, the Copa del Rey will have to alter its calendar and will lose some of the strong traction it had recently gained in bowing to UEFA’s excessive competition expansion.

Come Thursday evening at 22:00 UK time, an era will end as UEFA club competition group stages are consigned to the history books. A new format brings with it further complications, risk of even greater domination by the current elite and negative forced changes to famous competitions so interwoven into English footballing fabric. Never before does the phrase “If it isn’t broke don’t fix it” feel more apt.

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