PicoBlog

Let me just say that I really enjoy the Aria 5/5/10 rock PLO game. It’s the perfect combination of:

• My favorite game—PLO

• Always running 24/7

• Tourists

• Exploitable regs

• Not too many really good pros

• Big enough stakes to get my heart pumping

• When the rock messes with pre-flop strategy it keeps my brain active

That said, I just had a fairly disastrous trip to Vegas & I need to vent. First, just to be results oriented (reverse chronological order):

After a pretty good start the wheels just kind of came off.

I got a nasty lesson in why to be cautious about wraps with a gap at the top. Not sure how I’d play the hand differently. In the straddle I flopped a wrap with T876 on a K98 & called off a checkraise shove on the flop for 200bb at the 1/2/10 game. I was against JT97 giving me 20% equity. Ouch. Villain can also have KK there, though, in which case I’m flipping. “It’s just a cooler,” is an excuse for lazy thinking. Still not sure what to do with this next time. Just fold?

One more whine, then I’ll try to be constructive. The biggest losing session had me losing 5 $1K buy-ins in the first 30 minutes. I got it in anywhere from good (flip) to very good (4:1) each time. Lost each time.

The good news? I took the first 4 with equanimity. I estimated my equity. Checked for mistakes. I was playing well. Next bullet.

After that last loss I could feel the shame well up, I started to dissociate, I was ready to walk out. Instead I just breathed. Re-entered my body. Wiggled around a bit. Bought back in. Played well & went from $1000 to $2000 in the following 5.5 hours.

I got massively lucky on a couple of bomb pots. Lesson learned—”not the nuts” is just not anywhere near as profitable as “the nuts”. “Looks pretty good on both boards” is massively unprofitable. Just fold. That king-high flush? Not the nuts. Thank goodness for a straight flush out.

A seatmate was complaining to me about losing so much in bomb pots. He looked non-plussed when I said that folding stops the bleeding instantly. Every once in a while you look at a flop & go, “Holy shit!” and that’s when you bet/call. It’s a simple strategy but it reduces losses & offers the chance of wins.

I’ve talked on here about thinking in terms of equity—how much equity does this hand versus villain’s (or in this case villains’) range? How many turn/river cards will adjust that equity? How much? I’m not talking about calculating a precise number. Just guessing “a lot” “a little” & “none at all”.

Here’s the other good news—I’ve gotten okay at this. Every questionable situation I recorded I was anywhere from flipping to way ahead (that wrap-over-wrap situation being the one big exception). I’m no longer getting money in way behind (other exception—those earlier double board bomb pots).

I had a couple of cases where I did make small turn value bets, got check-raised, & had to fold hands that had super draws (2 pair on a straightening board). Check back. The river is for thin value bets.

I’ll confess to some jealousy. Over & over I saw what were obviously regs with massive stacks make obvious mistakes that I know not to make—on a double board bomb pot a guy overcalled a turn all-in with only a gutshot on one board & nothing on the other & got there for half. Same guy calls turn all-in with a naked flush draw & gets there on both boards. When an Indian or Chinese uncle does that, okay, us (attempting to be) profitable players are there to make sure they have someone to enjoy playing with. But regs? How do they stay in business?

• Wait for variance to catch up with me.

• Limit sessions. 2 4-hour sessions in a day & I’m playing B game.

• Figure out how to get more value from big hands.

• Re-fill my bankroll a little at a time. I still want to be careful of poker finances spilling over into life finances given that I’ve been losing.

• Figure out my next learning/training step.

• I’ll be back in 2 months for the series.

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