PicoBlog

I need to start off today’s post with a slight detour out of the gates (apparently strong, well-defined ledes aren’t really my thing. I’m more of a “meandering mental detritus” sort of writer). I’m starting to feel pretty good about the top of the Giants’ farm system at this point. Behind the scenes, I’ve been starting my standard process for building the top 50 — continuing to have conversations with industry folks, putting together the depth charts and Future Value grades for players, and stacking up the jenga tower — and the primary reaction that I’m having early in the process is that a lot of players are falling lower than I would have presumed prior to beginning. Guys who are coming off really strong years — years in which they made clear developments — are holding steady in the rankings or even getting bumped down a peg. And some players whose years weren’t as strong are getting pushed down significantly further than I feel comfortable with.

This is primarily the result of growing strength in the organization. There are players whose development clearly surged in 2023, and players who showed off legitimate big league tools, and the result is that there’s a race towards the top involving a lot of quality talent, including a decent knot of top 100 or future top 100 types. I’m also building a pretty big block of players between about #5-16 who are compressed together tightly, with the result being that I’m looking at players I consider to be top 10 “types” getting pushed outside the top 10 (and one player that I’m shocked to find I’m struggling to get into my top 20!).

All of which brings me round to the subject of today’s post. Aeverson Arteaga, my #4 prospect in last winter’s top 50, is starting to feel like one of the slipperiest prospects in the org — a player who could end up sliding almost anywhere in that dense group of players near the top. He could end up sitting far lower than I intend or want him to be, or rise up to the top of that knot and reclaim pretty much the same status he held going into the 2022 season. I must do more work to pull the threads loose from the pattern.

What that all means for the farm in general is a topic for another day (though the bottom line would seem to be: “good!”). But what it means for today’s topic is that Arteaga could be the single most difficult choice that the Giants will have to make next week.

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