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Good Morning,

The Mets are bringing back Michael Pérez on a minor league deal, and the timing of this news is perfect. Today, I will answer a subscriber question by diving into the art of catcher framing.

📬 FROM JONATHAN: Pitch framing is one of those skills that seems to get touted, but I’ve never known what to look for when watching a game. I don’t recall seeing a great pitch frame highlighted on Sportscenter.

Let’s start with a definition. MLB defines catcher framing as “the art of a catcher receiving a pitch in a way that makes it more likely for an umpire to call it a strike -- whether that's turning a borderline ball into a strike, or not losing a strike to a ball due to poor framing.”

Pretty straight forward. Framing essentially takes advantage of the fact that umpires are human and they can be influenced into calling strikes based on where the catcher’s mitt rests after receiving a pitch.

📈 How is it measured? There are several different metrics and approaches. But the simplest way is to focus on the pitches on the border of the strike zone, or the Shadow Zone,” and express the number of non-swings that were called strikes on a percentage basis.

In other words, we aren’t going to give the catcher credit or blame for a called strike or missed strike on a pitch down the middle of the plate — that’s on the umpire — the same being true for pitches way outside of the strike zone. But those pitches that paint the corners, the ones that could technically go either way, those are the offerings we want to isolate and identify which catchers are the best at turning into strikes.

To give you a visual of what we’re talking about, watch this pitch from Taijuan Walker to Tomás Nido—it drops a tad outside of the strike zone, but Nido receives it steady and holds his glove inside the strike zone to earn the favorable call:

Had his glove fallen away from the zone, perhaps Walker doesn’t get that call. You can see a better example by watching the video I made about James McCann a few years back (you might have to open in Twitter to watch).

While McCann improved in this area, it was Nido who was the Mets’ best catcher at doing this last season. As you can see in the graphic below, he turned 50.4% of non-swing pitches in the Shadow Zone into strikes. He was best at “framing” pitches on his arm side, either inside to left-handed batters or away from right-handed hitters. He had the least success framing pitches high on his glove side. He will be joined in 2023 by one of the few catchers who saved more runs than him!

🏃‍♂️What about catcher framing runs? This is where the math really starts to take over. But to put it simply, think of each pitch as a contributing factor to the outcome of the game, or more precisely, to the chances of a team scoring a run. If you throw a first-pitch strike, you generally have a better chance of getting the hitter out than if you throw a first-pitch ball. The probabilities compound as the count tilts more in favor of either the hitter or the pitcher. Catcher framing runs essentially assigns the relevant run value to the strikes framed by the catcher to put that contribution in terms of runs saved.

🤖 How would the automated strike zone impact all of this? We might be only a few years away from seeing robo-umps in the major leagues as the minors continue to experiment with an automated strike zone this season. We can debate the merits of removing the human element another day. In terms of pitch framing, it obviously will have an impact.

“If there’s an automated zone, you’re gonna see guys that have that big (throwing) arm and can really swing it,” former Mets catcher James McCann recently told The Athletic. “When you take into account now every young catcher is headed out to the field with a wrist band on his arm on how to call the game, they have essentially taken away the necessity of a catcher to understand swings, understand their pitching staff and use their eyes. And you’re gonna see teams that think we can just get someone who can throw and can hit and we’ll take care of everything else from inside. I think that takes away from the game a lot.”

Now, an automated strike zone doesn’t mean a perfect strike zone. It is built off an algorithm that needs to make assumptions to account for the individual height of each hitter. The depth of the strike zone is also tricky to define. Pitches we are accustom to seeing called a ball might suddenly become strikes, and vice versa. But the ability for catchers to impact whether a ball or strike is called is lost.

🍎 How would this impact the Mets? If robo-umps were being instituted this season, the impact could be substantial. Only three teams saved more runs from framing than the Mets did last season. That number should go up with Nido seeing more time behind the plate and with the addition of Omar Narváez, who is also an excellent framer, as highlighted earlier. The Mets also have veteran starters and relievers who make a living painting the corners.

But since the automated system is still at least one year away, it’s hard to say whether there will be a long-term impact. Especially when you consider the evolution of Francisco Álvarez, who better fits the type of catcher McCann was worried about taking over the game than one that is valued for his framing abilities.

◾️ The Astros hired former Braves executive Dana Brown as their general manager.

◾️ The Athletics traded left-hander Colin Irvin and right-hander Kyle Virbitsky to the Orioles for infield prospect Darell Hernaiz.

◾️ Ray Herbert, sandlot ace and 1962 All-Star, died at the age of 93.

🔗 MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects: Read about Francisco Álvarez (3rd), Brett Baty (21st), Kevin Parada (36th), and Alex Ramirez (96th).

🔗 ‘Japanese ace’ Kodai Senga will be talk of Mets this spring, by Mike Puma, NY Post: “In an effort to get a jump on understanding Senga, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, bullpen coach Dom Chiti and director of pitching development Eric Jagers traveled to Seattle within the last two weeks to watch the right-hander throw and to begin building a rapport with him.”

🔗 Mets’ Ideal Lineup Analytics: Strengths Or Handedness? by Rivka Boord, Mets Merized Online: “The main differences in an analytically-driven lineup are in the numbers two, three, and five spots. Whereas an old second hitter was often a light-hitting player whose function was to move the runner over, today’s No. 2 is often the best pure hitter on the team. The No. 3 is not as important in a sabermetric lineup, rather than the best hitter as it used to be. The No. 5 hitter is usually a better hitter than in the past and often takes the place of the old No. 3 hitter, at least power-wise.”

And we close this one out with a wholesome moment…

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