PicoBlog

Thank you, Tyler.

Here's why I think the convictions won't matter much to the "If Trump's convicted, I won't vote for him" crowd except at the far margins.

Trump faces four criminal cases: the hush-money payments in New York, the insurrection case in D.C. (even though it doesn't include an insurrection charge, but it clearly concerns activity correlated with the insurrection), the documents-related case in Florida, and the sprawling election-interference case in Georgia -- 91 felony counts in all.

All of the information relevant to those charges has been widely broadcast and available to the public for years, much of it (especially that related to the D.C. case) through the fully televised J6 Committee hearings and the real-time televised events on January 6. Indeed, because of rules of evidence (especially regarding legal relevance) that apply in trials, the public has far more reliable information about the conduct underlying those four cases than the juries will be allowed to consider in reaching their verdicts.

So, in my view, I do not see why those who say they would vote for Trump despite the greater trove of widespread information already out there about conduct at issue in the criminal cases would turn around and change their minds in the wake of criminal convictions based on evidence consisting of a small subset of the already long-standing publicly available information about that same conduct.

Essentially, I'm doubtful that Biden has "lost" the convictions-will-change-my-mind cohort of voters. I think he's never actually had them. The conduct, not the convictions, are the things that would likely change minds. But that crowd say, in effect, that it's prepared to vote for Trump despite the known and well-validated conduct. So I doubt that convictions will change votes except at the margins of that cohort, and not enough to affect the results of the election. Convictions will, however, make it harder to explain away their votes. But in Trumpworld, excusing the inexcusable has never been a barrier to supporting the cult leader.

I don't see the lack of movement in that cohort as a reason for pessimism, however. As Matthew Dowd (I think it was him) noted on MSNBC recently, elections are about adding to your support, not subtracting, and Trump isn't adding. At best, his support from the MAGA crowd is static, and MAGA (which includes the convictions-will-change-my-mind crowd) doesn't seem to be growing. And because of issues surrounding abortion (further highlighted by the Alabama IVF decision) and other matters about which Trump and Republicans are in significant conflict with often large majorities of the public, and because of Trump's increasingly unhinged rhetoric and promises of an American dictatorship, Trump seems to be alienating more and more non-MAGA voters. Those are the voters that Biden will need and are more readily winnable.

I understand and respect your view. My wife and I have frequent conversations along similar lines, and she's more in your camp than mine. But if Trump were to win in November, I think it won't be because he "lost" the convictions-will-change-my-vote crowd. It'll be because he (and Democrats generally) failed to pick up a sufficient number of non-MAGA voters who, for whatever reason, aren't persuaded by Biden's record in so many areas that a President can influence -- a record that is much, much better than I expected when he took office. Hence, the need to put maximum effort into reaching those non-MAGA voters, persuading them about the good news of Biden's accomplishments and what they mean for the well-being of people and a democratic system of government, and then getting those voters to the polls to rebuke and bury Trump.

Again, thanks for enjoying the sarcastic component of my previous comment. And thanks also for presenting your views on the remainder of my comment.

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