Validating The Work - by The Niche Cache
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Massive weekend for White Ferns and New Zealand Warriors coming up. We talked through both in the Subscriber Pod which is only available to the Patreon whanau and folks with a paid Substack subscription.
White Ferns lost the first ODI with another performance that aligns with White Ferns woes. Batting first they were all out for 156 (33.3ov) and England then cruised to victory losing just 1 wicket and scoring at 7.35rpo. Georgia Plimmer (29) and Brooke Halliday (51) were the only Ferns to score 20+ runs, then Halliday was the only bowler to take a wicket.
That means no runs from Suzie Bates, Sophie Devine and Amelia Kerr while they were also part of a bowling unit that got whacked around...
Molly Penfold: 3ov @ 9rpo
Jess Kerr: 5ov @ 5.2rpo
Hannah Rowe: 2w @ 7.5rpo
Sophie Devine: 2ov @ 9rpo
Amelia Kerr: 2ov @ 10.5rpo
Fran Jonas: 4ov @ 8.2rpo
Brooke Halliday: 3.2ov, 1w @ 5.1rpo
I'm still amazed that few folks seem to care that White Ferns aren't very good. In the Sub Pod yesterday I suggested that White Fern have got worse under coach Ben Sawyer (amazing considering how stale the Bob Carter era was) and despite major flaws being exposed at various checkpoints over the past five years, White Ferns cruise under the radar.
We always chat about the 'White Ferns sweep' where they lose the first two games, thus losing the series, and then they pick up a win in the last game. That's exactly what happened last summer against England and after winning the third game, the headline was "Devine: Win in final ODI vs England 'validates the work we're doing behind the scenes'".
White Ferns were dominated in the first ODI of this series and their response in the second game on Sunday night will inform us about the depth of their woes. Coach Sawyer and skipper Devine don't appear to be under any pressure despite their backwards motion, which probably won't change with losses in England. White Ferns lost three of four series in Aotearoa last summer and there was no chat about their issues, so that probably won't change when they are out of sight in England during the winter.
Here are some White Ferns notes...
Lauren Down only selected for ODIs, doesn't play 1st ODI
Maddy Green in 2024 ODIs: 56 runs @ 18avg/47sr
Brooke Halliday has 5 ODI scores over 50, 4 vs England
Georgia Plimmer averaging 12.8 in ODIs
Fran Jonas in 2024 ODI bowling: 65avg/4.7rpo
Jonas ODI career bowling: 44avg/4.6rpo
Amelia Kerr ODI bowling by year:
2020: 33avg/4.7rpo
2021: 40avg/5.2rpo
2022: 39avg/4.4rpo
2023: 46avg/4.9rpo
2024: 29avg/4.6rpo
All bowlers (10) conceding over 4.5rpo in ODIs since start of 2023
Bowlers averaging 30+ in ODIs since start of 2023: Rowe, A-Kerr, Jonas, Penfold, Halliday, Carson
Similar yarn for NZ Warriors who return to Mt Smart against Broncos on Saturday. Mt Smart is no fortress and NZW have bad losses at home this season, plus Broncos have a speed/power combo that makes them a favourite in games against NZW. Broncos won't have many State of Origin players but along with Storm and Roosters, it doesn't really matter who is playing as they own NZW.
For example, last year Broncos had a win in Napier over NZW during the Origin period, as well as the comprehensive finals win. Storm is the headline bogey team, but Roosters and Broncos aren't far behind for teams I'll usually pick to win against NZW.
NZW desperately need a win in the NRL. NSW Cup (5th) and Under 21 Jersey Flegg Warriors (13th) are also playing at Mt Smart on Saturday but they take on Raiders teams who are 2nd and 1st in their respective grades. These two teams don't need a win like the NRL team does, but having all three grades in tough match ups will provide a major learning phase about what NZW stand for.
A sneaky thing for the NRL Warriors is their style, identity and the culture at Mt Smart. NZW do not have a clear playing style right now and with no style, there is no identity on offer with what is important to the NRL team. Losing 6-66 does not suggest a hearty Mt Smart culture and, like White Ferns, this weekend will inform us all about the mana of these teams - both of whom are under the pump.
One other thing that has popped up from the Shaun Johnson winning percentage stuff. Here are the winning rates for various NZW this season to build out context around Johnson's mahi...
Broncos will have Jesse Arthars (East Coast Bays), Deine Mariner (Marist), Xavier Willison (Whatawhata) and Josiah Karapani (East Tamaki RU) in their team. One of the Broncos reserve grade teams is Wynnum and they have named Nathaniel Tangimataiti (Ellerslie) and Kylem Vunipola (Kia Ora) in Queensland Cup.
Tangimataiti is named at prop after coming through the Broncos system as an edge forward/centre in recent years. Vunipola is named as 18th-lad for the third game this season despite playing in the U19 Mal Meninga Cup competition earlier this year as a fullback/centre. Vunipola left Palmerston North to link up with the Broncos system and he's already commanding Q Cup looks; this is the level of talent coming from Aotearoa's regions.
Another Palmerston North product Javahn Stevenson-Hala is named for Eels U21s after playing U19 SG Ball earlier this year. They play against Knights who have Sosaia Latu and Haami Loza (Mangere East) named after they were recently promoted from U19s to U21s.
The funky Sharks trio of Salesi Ataata (Otahuhu), Felix Fa'atili (Hornby) and Richie Tupuailei (Hornby RU) played together last week and are named again this week.
I might put the Kiwi-NRL Spotlight on Bulldogs soon, so here's a list of notable Kiwi-NRL juniors in the Bulldogs system...
Poasa Fa'amausili: Glenora
Hayze Perham: Pikiao
Jirah Momoisea: St Paul's College
Isaac Matalavea-Booth: Manurewa
Cassius Tia: Marist
Alekolasimi Jones: Mt Albert
Callum Donaldson: West Coast/Halswell
Fahmy Toilalo: Otahuhu
Sosaia Alatini: Hornby
Bronson Reuben: Kaiapoi
Roy Tatupu: Mt Albert Grammar
Sione Siulua: Manurewa
Shaye Faa'aoga: Pt Chevalier
Cheldon Hayward: Linwood
Will Young was the main Kiwi County Tour in action as County Championship cricket swung back around. Young had scores of 19 and 68 for Nottinghamshire vs Somerset, which gave him his first 30+ score in a while. Here are Young's scores in his last 10 games: 27, 22*, 0, 14 (CC), 2, 1, 8, 25, 9, 1, 12 (T20), 19, 68* (CC)
Here's how his winter mahi looks...
T20 Blast: 56 runs @ 9.3avg/77sr
County Championship: 358 runs @ 51.1avg/51sr, 1 x 100, 1 x 50
Musical jam…
The Tall Blacks went down 73-70 to Finland the other day in their first warm-up game before Olympic qualifying. This game wasn’t broadcast so limited details were forthcoming. We do know that Sam Mennenga found his way onto the roster after Sam Waardenburg was unable to travel due to injury, so that’s the second injury-related change they’ve had to make after Dan Fotu replaced Hyrum Harris. Neither Waardenburg nor Mennega have been playing in the NZ league this season so that news crept up on us. Anyway, here’s some crowd footage of the lads doing the haka...
The game itself looks to have been a defensive grind, which probably suits the NZers. They never allowed Finland to score more than 20 points in a quarter... but did let things slip at the end when they saved their own lowest-scoring frame (13 points) for the fourth and then lost to a buzzer-beating triple. NZ had the ball with the seconds eeking out in a tied game. Corey Webster drove to the hoop but couldn’t make a tough lay-up. Finland rebounded and threw a quick outlet towards captain Sasu Salin... who threw up a triple on the turn with the clock expiring while the ball was in the air. It went down. He was 0/7 from the field before that shot. There’s a clip of it here. (No Lauri Markkanen for Finland by the way, he’s injured).
There’s also a clip of Corey Webster hitting a halfcourt shot to end the second quarter which should be more to your taste. Webster top-scored for Aotearoa with 18 points, though he only shot 7/19 from the floor. Finn Delany also bagged 11 points while Shea Ili had 9 points and 6 assists but also 7 turnovers. Seems to have been a rusty one out of the gates – overall NZ shot 40% from the field, 30% from threes, and had 15 turnovers to 18 assists. Yanni Wetzell only played 15 minutes due to foul trouble.
The starting five was: Shea Ili, Corey Webster, Reuben Te Rangi, Finn Delany, and Yanni Wetzell. There were also significant roles off the bench (at least 15 mins) for Izayah Le’Afa, Sam Mennenga, Tom Vodanovich, and Jordan Ngatai. Flynn Cameron played 8 minutes. That haka vid shows that Ethan Rusbatch wasn’t kitted up, while Ben Gold, Tyrell Harrison, and Dan Fotu also didn’t play. Bit surprised about Harrison there, though it could have been an injury precaution thing. We’ll see if that rotation changes at all when they play Poland overnight. Here’s the box score from the Finland game.
All Whites At The OFC Nations Cup...
Most Minutes
Alex Rufer – 270
Kosta Barbarouses – 263
Elijah Just – 256
Finn Surman – 253
Cameron Howieson – 239
Goals + Assists
Ben Waine – 4 (4 goals)
Elijah Just – 4 (1 goal, 3 assists)
Kosta Barbarouses – 4 (3 goals, 1 assist)
Liberato Cacace – 3 (3 assists)
Max Mata – 2 (1 goal, 1 assist)
Tim Payne – 1 (1 assist)
Ben Old – 1 (1 goal)
Finn Surman – 1 (1 goal)
G+A Per Ninety Minutes
Ben Waine – 2.77
Max Mata – 1.67
Liberato Cacace – 1.50
Elijah Just – 1.41
Kosta Barbarouses – 1.37
The All Whites will face hosts Vanuatu in the final at 4pm on Sunday after Brian Kaltack and the boys beat Fiji 2-1 in the other semi-final. NZ already beat Vanuatu 4-0 in the group stage. It’s Vanuatu’s first Nations Cup final. Ben Waine and Roy Krishna are tied for the golden boot with four goals each and there is a third-place playoff meaning Krishna’s not done yet.
We’ve got a squad for the Men’s U16 Oceania Championships coming up in July. Martin Bullock will be coaching again, having helmed the last few U17 World Cup quests. His previous lot were pretty disappointing at last year’s event, setting up way too defensively – with Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues only featuring off the bench – and only scoring one goal from the penalty spot. But a new wave is upon us. We keep moving.
The U17s are the first introduction to high performance football for these lads so there’s really no reason to go analysing their abilities – especially when the hit rate from this age group going on to become reliable professionals is relatively low. Let them develop naturally and just enjoy this opportunity, then we can look back later with hindsight to get a better idea. But it is interesting to see where guys are being selected from.
This squad has six players based overseas with four of them in Australia. All four of the Aussie-based dudes have current A-League academy affiliations. There’s also a bloke in Germany and a fella in England. The overseas-based lads who commit to the U17s aren’t always heard of again afterwards so keep a grain of salt handy. Or they go down the Keegan Jelacic route and switch back – it’s a risky approach when it comes to local development. What’s surprising is that there are only three Wellington Phoenix players here – although the Nix do have a tendency to recruit blokes from out of the U17 pool so expect one or two or more to end up there down the line. There is one other central region player, two from the southern region, and a whopping eleven from the northern region.
The Ben Old to Saint-Etienne stuff is happening again and it’s sounding pretty legitimate. The chat in France is that it’s a done deal and could be confirmed in the coming days – though Old’s away with the All Whites at the Nations Cup for a wee bit longer so maybe not quite that soon. This deal got a few words when it was first rumoured a couple weeks back. SE have just been promoted back to the top division in France, have new ownership, and are trying to be clever with data-driven transfer/scouting, particularly towards cheaper foreign prospects... and voila, Ben Old’s name must have bounced off the screen.
London City Lionesses did their retained list the other day and Paige Satchell was unfortunately one of those to be released with her contract ended. No mention of Grace Neville though, which stacks up with the evidence that she’s going nowhere. They’ve used her image in promos for the upcoming preseason after all.
It’s a pity for Satchell. She seems to find herself at a different club every year. Satch made 15 WSL Championship appearances, 11 of them starts, with 2 goals and an assist, and those are decent numbers... but LCL has bigger intentions than a club that barely avoided relegation ordinarily would. This time a year ago they only had a handful of players under contract and the previous year’s squad, Neville included, had written an open letter to the ownership begging for better support. Since then they’ve been sold to Korean-American mogul Michelle Kang, who is also the majority owner of Washington Spirit and Olympique Lyonnais. This morning they unveiled a former PSG coach as their new manager and bought a whole new training facility. This is what the director of football had to say about the releases...
“I want to thank all of the players for their hard work last season,” said Director of Football Ronald Thompson. “They were key to helping us secure our safety in the league and we wish them all the best for the future. The Club has hugely exciting plans for the season ahead and we’re going to do everything we can to fulfil Michele Kang’s ambition to recruit players who can help us reach the Barclays Women’s Super League, and stay there”
Apparently they decided that Paige Satchell wasn’t good enough for “Michele Kang’s ambition”. They also released their club captain, Lois Joel, so at least it’s not personal. If it’s any consolation, they’ve signed Swedish star Kosovare Asllani from Real Madrid as Satchell’s replacement.
The WSL transfer window officially opened a couple of days ago, hence we’re getting a ramping up of news and views on that front. Hopefully that’ll bring some Ria Percival news. It was also Anna Leat’s birthday on Wednesday which brought a celebratory post from Aston Villa... just a few days before her contract is due to expire. It had been reported that she was likely to leave, though with a lot of shifting sands at Villa (who still haven’t unveiled a new manager) that’s all to be determined. She’ll have options and she should now be able to demand a starter’s gig. Maybe at Villa, maybe elsewhere.
There are several others to watch out for in England, not the least of whom being Jacqui Hand after her Lewes side was relegated. The English Championship would be an interesting landing spot for Kate Taylor although she might even have the juice to get on the fringes of a WSL club already... or maybe go somewhere else entirely. It’s also the case that Hannah Blake, who has long expressed a desire to play in England, is currently in Manchester doing a month-long training regime with a private academy.
Here’s another one... there’s chat that Alex Greive is being lined up by Bohemians in Ireland. It had seemed logical that he’d simply sign permanently with Dundee United after helping them get promoted – they did recently signed Ryan Strain on a free transfer, an Aussie fullback who was a teammate of Greive’s at St Mirren and was released by them at the same time (the Dundee Utd manager is an ex-St Mirren boss). AG was right there so for that not to have happened yet suggests he might be looking elsewhere. Bohs are one place below Sligo Rovers in the League of Ireland, the club where Max Mata and Nando Pijnaker have had success, so tbh it’d be another drop for a player capable of playing much higher. His goals return wasn’t great at St Mirren but his workrate and dependability certainly were. But Greive’s already following Bohs on instagram so we’ll see how this goes.
Musical Jam...
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