PicoBlog

Tuesday marked two years since Manchester United sacked Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as their manager. As is normal on anniversaries like this, people often take a look back as to what’s happened since and wonder what would things be like if that move was never made.

I don’t find that particularly helpful in this case. As I wrote just a few weeks before Solskjaer was sacked, it was time for him to go. The man had done a good job for two and a half years, but he was no longer doing a good job. He was showing no signs of turning things around.

Solskjaer was the fall guy. He was the one who took all the blame. The narrative around the team that season was that the addition of Cristiano Ronaldo should have made United genuine title challengers. When they got off to such a bad start, it was clearly the managers fault. There were plenty of ideas going around about how the team would take off once Solskjaer got sacked.

It would be a waste of time to sit here and wonder what would have happened had Solskjaer not been sacked. I was and still am one of Solskjaer’s biggest defenders and I’ll be the first to tell you, he would not have fared any better than Ralf Rangnick did over the second half of that season. When I first wrote the post on it being time to sack Solskjaer I included a part about how the team was so flawed that it didn’t matter who the manager was. This team was never going to be successful.

Soslkjaer didn’t know how to handle the arrival of Ronaldo. He kept trying different things with his formations and his tactics but nothing worked. He needed to go because he gave off the idea that he was never going to figure it out. He wouldn’t (and couldn’t) drop Ronaldo. He kept picking Mason Greenwood despite the fact that he and Ronaldo didn’t pass to each other and neither played any defense.

Sacking Solskjaer was not the sliding doors moment of the season. Had he stayed in charge these things would have kept happening over the course of the season. It’s impossible to see how he would have kept the job all the way through. United would have plummeted down the table and changed things up over the summer. They’d likely have brought in Erik Ten Hag and we’d be in the exact same place we are now.

So let’s go back to the true sliding doors moment of the season. When Manchester United signed Cristiano Ronaldo. What would have happened if they didn’t?

It’s very easy to say that Cristiano Ronaldo ruined everything. He caused a massive unsettling in the dressing room. On the pitch he completely changed the shot distribution of how United attacked, cannibalizing the production of his teammates. While everyone (wrongly) focused on his lack of pressing, it was merely his inability to do anything defensively that caused a ton of problems for the team.

It would be really easy to say that if Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t return to Old Trafford United easily cruise to another top four finish, maybe make some runs in the cup, and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would still be the manager.

As I mentioned before, I’m one of the biggest Solskjaer defenders out there and I’m…not quite sure that’s what would happen?

Let’s start at the beginning.

Even before Ronaldo Manchester United’s board did not exactly set this team up for a lot of success. United finished the 2020-21 season second in goals but fifth in shots, sixth in non-penalty xG, and ninth in non-penalty xG per shot. They needed to create more and better opportunities.

On the other side of the ball United finished second in non-penalty goals against and third in non-penalty xG per shot against. 12 of the 44 goals they conceded came in the first three matches of the season. They were pretty solid defensively.

Where United was weak was in midfield. They only had four (pivot) midfielders: Fred, Nemanja Matic, Paul Pogba, and Scott McTominay. By the end of the 2020-21 season Soskjaer was primarily using Pogba as a left wing, effectively giving them just three midfielders - and McTominay and Matic didn’t play together.

That seems like the biggest area of need. Not to mention, if you improve your midfield, you’ll also cut down on the amount of shots against you, and if you can more effectively get the ball forward to your good players, you’ll increase the amount of chances you create yourself. Two birds, one stone.

With fans only just coming back to stadiums following the COVID-19 pandemic, funds were tight around Old Trafford. United’s priority was finally landing Jadon Sancho. Then, rather than address their biggest need, United jumped at the opportunity to sign a big name centerback who wouldn’t make an already good part of their team much better.

Raphael Varane was offered to United brass - IE Ed Woodward - in January, and the rest was history. The signing of Varane was always met with a hair of skepticism. Yes United were getting one of the best defenders in the world, but at 28 years old with his injury history, was this the right prioritization of funds?

Had Varane been followed through the door by a new midfielder none of that would matter. The issue is, once Varane came through the door United made it clear they were out of money. Any new signing could only come if United raised funds through sales.

That completely changes the equation on Varane. If United only had the funds to sign one more player then shouldn’t they have been prioritizing a midfielder instead of a center back? Varane has started just 46 of United’s 88 Premier League fixtures over the last seasons which lends credence to those skepticisms.

United were entering the season a little light to begin with. In a season preview interview for the United Journal that I can’t seem to find online anymore I wrote the following:

So, let’s get into what actually happened.

United start the season off with a banging 5-1 win over Leeds. Pogba starts on the left wing and has four assists, Bruno scores a hat trick, and even Fred scores a goal.

A week later the first cracks start to show. Southampton sits off United’s first phase of buildup, forcing the ball wide and denying to Bruno and Pogba. It completely negates the Pogba left wing tactic and United really struggle.

The truth of the matter was teams had started to figure out the McFred pivot with Pogba at left wing towards the end of the 2020-21 season. Without a new addition to the midfield, it was only going to be a matter of time before teams fully figured it out. United were going to be in trouble if they didn’t come up with something new.

It’s impossible to really tell what happens next here. United started shifting their buildup formation from a 3-1 where Matic would split the center backs and form a back three, to more of a 2-2 with the center backs and midfielders forming a box. It never really worked but who’s to say whether that’s because the midfield wasn’t capable of doing this (both Ralf Rangnick and Erik Ten Hag did everything they could to avoid McTominay or Fred having any buildup duties) or because Ronaldo was around dropping into peoples space limiting their effectiveness?

There are some general things we can infer would have happened. Dan James wouldn’t have been sold, which would have improved the team’s defensive record. James likely comes into the team for some of the bigger games and while we can’t say that any of the results go differently, I can pretty confidently say Liverpool wouldn’t have won 5-0.

Without Ronaldo United wouldn’t have had to change how they defended. They’d remain in a mid-block trap that kept the ball away from their own box. Without the forwards pushing up needlessly the midfield wouldn’t tire themselves out from having to cover too much ground and do a much better job protecting their back line. The 4-1 losses to Leicester and Watford, along with the Champions League group stage matches against Villarreal and Atalanta at home would have looked a lot different.

The question is where would United get their goals from. Up top is where things get interesting.

Mason Greenwood looked like he was finally making “the leap” scoring three goals in the first three games of the season. What we would all like to imagine is that he would have kept going on this trajectory, claimed the starting striker spot, and continue bagging in the goals for United. Ignoring the elephant in the room for a second, I’m not quite sure that’s what would have happened.

Even after winning 5-1 in their opening match, Solskjaer returned Anthony Martial to the starting XI against Southampton. After the match Solskjaer spoke about the need to get Martial going this season.

It was clear that Martial still played a big part of his plans for that season and for good reason. United were better when Martial was on the pitch. He played a big part in getting the best out of Rashford and, at the time, Bruno’s numbers when Martial was on the pitch were way better. Given Martial’s history if he could repeat the 0.15 xG per shot he was getting in 2020-21 he was almost a certainty to start putting the ball in the back of the net again.

Add in the presence of Edinson Cavani and it seems like Greenwood would continue spending a lot of time on the right wing - especially early on in the season when Rashford was still recovering from injury and Jadon Sancho preferred to play on the left. What happens then?

Greenwood scored in the first three games but was hardly effective in the latter two. While everyone remembers the three goals in three games, many are quick to forget that Greenwood was awful over the next three months. How much of that was down to Ronaldo? The two - hilariously - didn’t pass to each other on the pitch, making the attack much worse. Once Ronaldo arrived Greenwood really only had two good appearances. A cameo in the League Cup against West Ham and a dead rubber against Young Boys in the Champions League. In both of those appearances he played as the central striker and Ronaldo wasn’t on the pitch. Is that a coincidence?

I’m of the belief that if Ronaldo didn’t arrive Greenwood would have scored more than four goals before January, but I don’t think he’d have been flying as high as others may suggest. He’d still be pinned down on the right wing as Cavani and Martial took minutes down the middle.

Solskjaer did start Cavani, Martial, and Greenwood together once - against Everton - where the three played nearly an hour together before Ronaldo came on. United had a 1-0 lead and the Ronaldo hating section of fans were all talking about how much better United looked without him - though I’m not sure 6 shots for 0.38 xG in 56 minutes is what I would call good.

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Greenwood taking some minutes at center forward would open up the right side for Jadon Sancho. Perhaps without all the back room stuff that happened when Ronaldo arrived makes it easier for him to settle. Perhaps once Rashford returns from injury Sancho moves over to the right wing, gets a run of games, and actually starts producing. Or perhaps the reasons he never quite got himself flying as high in England as he did as Germany would have come about anyway and this is just who he would have been? I’d like to believe the former but you can’t rule out the latter.

Cavani himself would have been a source of goals. If he could replicate the 0.65 non penalty goals per 90 he had the season before United would be in good shape. But that would entirely depend on how much Cavani they actually got.

That’s what we can’t avoid here. The things that would have happened anyway.

Whether Mason Greenwood was pounding the goals in or not, by January he’d be gone. Edinson Cavani was hardly available that season. Part of that was because he was unhappy with the Ronaldo signing and often refused to make himself available. If Ronaldo never signs, he’d be available more often. But he also battled plenty of injuries the season before Ronaldo arrived. If he played more it’s a good bet he’d have picked up just as many injuries.

The same can maybe be said of Anthony Martial, especially given that there was a public disagreement regarding his availability between him and Rangnick. Maybe if he’s happier there’s more of a determination to stay fit. But again, Martial got hurt as soon as he went on loan to Sevilla in the second half of the season. Last year Erik Ten Hag made it very clear he was the number one striker and he still couldn’t stay fit. It’s safe to say he would have had problems staying on the field.

Those injuries would have affected United where it mattered too. Paul Pogba only started 16 league games that season. Based on his injury history before and after that season we can safely say those injuries would have happened regardless. That’d be a big loss as Solskjaer’s teams were already so heavily reliant on Pogba being on the pitch. Luke Shaw also battled injuries that season.

You could easily look at games over the second half of the season where Greenwood, Cavani, Martial, Shaw, and Pogba wouldn’t be available. What if Sancho still struggled? Where would United’s creativity be coming from then? How would United’s midfield hold up with just three players and an entire league that’s wise enough to shut it down.

There is a reality where Martial stays fit and Rashford returns to form playing next to him. Then Sancho settles on the right wing and that front three that we always envisioned soars. Knowing what we know now, that’s probably not the most likely way everything would have played out.

That’s the thing. While United entered the season as one of the four best teams in the league, the teams with question marks stepped up. Liverpool ended up being really good. Chelsea were good by Chelsea standards. Spurs finishing on 71 points despite United taking six points off them would have made this a tough task.

United didn’t bolster the one area of their squad that really needed bolstering. They would have had to endure large parts of the season missing several key players forcing Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to have to spend the bulk of the season papering over the cracks. Now look, the first posts ever written on this site were all about how Solskjaer was always adapting and papering over the cracks but I’m not sure he would have been able to do it again. The entire Premier League seemed to have a copy of the book on how to shut down United with the McFred midfield.

Would United have been able to get 72 points to jump ahead of Spurs? I’m not 100 percent sure. Does Solskjaer keep his job if United don’t qualify for the Champions League? There were calls for his head before the season even began! He certainly would have had very legitimate excuses for taking a step backwards but when was the discourse around him ever rational?

How different would things be if United never brought back Cristiano Ronaldo?

I’m not sure that in November of 2023 they’d be all that different after all.

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