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The 2024 WNBA season tips off on Tuesday night. This is set to be an exciting season of basketball, headlined by the Las Vegas Aces and their quest to win a third title in a row. 

Below are some of my preseason predictions for the 2024 WNBA season.

1. Las Vegas Aces

2. New York Liberty

3. Connecticut Sun

4. Seattle Storm

5. Atlanta Dream

6. Minnesota Lynx

7. Indiana Fever

8. Dallas Wings

9. Phoenix Mercury

10. Chicago Sky

11. Los Angeles Sparks

12. Washington Mystics

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about my four picks to miss the playoffs, which you can check out here. However, I’ve changed my mind a little since then. With Brittney Griner dealing with some kind of foot injury, the Mercury might be entering the season without any starter-level bigs. The depth concerns in Phoenix as well as the chance that a lot of big personalities wind up clashing have me low on the team despite the huge moves they made this offseason. I mean, look, I could be very wrong about this, and I’ll accept all the hate if Phoenix winds up as a top-four team, but I’m just not seeing it.

As far as how the eight playoff teams rank, let’s talk about them in tiers.

Tier 1: The Las Vegas Aces

Teams: Aces

Even with Candace Parker retiring, the Aces stand above the rest of the league. That’s what happens when you have the best player on the planet, A’ja Wilson, and you surround her with Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young. There are some depth concerns, but there were similar concerns last season and the team went 34-6, then lost just one game during the entire postseason.

Tier 2: Teams Vying To Play Vegas In The Finals

Teams: Liberty, Sun, Storm

The Liberty are essentially running it back minus Stefanie Dolson this season. This is a good basketball team, but it’s not the Aces. Still, you can probably break this tier into two parts, with the Liberty as the clear favorites to meet the Aces in the Finals. Along with reigning MVP Breanna Stewart, the Liberty have the elite shooting of Sabrina Ionescu and former MVP Jonquel Jones at center. They did manage to go a respectable 4-5 against Vegas last year and were the only other team with a double-digit net rating, but the Liberty seem like a team that might have taken a small step back.

Connecticut has some concerns with its guard position, but a team with an Alyssa Thomas/DeWanna Bonner/Brionna Jones trio at the three, four and five is always going to be a contender. Thomas had a great argument for winning MVP last season, though the award ultimately went to Stewart.

Meanwhile, Seattle was awful last season, winning just 11 games. The team’s 27.5 winning percentage was its lowest since the franchise’s inaugural 2000 season. But the Storm made huge moves this offseason, adding Skylar Diggins-Smith to the backcourt and Nneka Ogwumike to the frontcourt. Pair those two with Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor and you suddenly have a title contender.

Tier 3: Solid Playoff Teams

Teams: Dream, Lynx

Atlanta added Tina Charles in free agency and traded for Jordin Canada, adding those two to a team that features Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyenne Parker. The Dream aren’t winning a championship, but I think they can have a 2023 Wings type of season, where they finish above .500 and are a threat most nights, but fizzle when they take on one of the top teams in the playoffs.

Minnesota added Courtney Williams this offseason, providing the Lynx with another offensive threat. With Napheesa Collier at the four and Diamond Miller set to take a step forward in her second season, I see Minnesota finishing above .500 for the first time since 2021.

Tier 4: Could Miss The Playoffs

Teams: Fever, Wings

The Fever have the best young core in the league with Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith, but a playoff berth depends on Clark adjusting quickly to the pro game. If she does, Indiana can see postseason play for the first time since 2016. 

Dallas is coming off its best season since moving to Texas, but the team’s decision to largely run things back with the same group this year meant that they were susceptible to some regression if things didn’t go exactly as they did in 2023. And well…Satou Sabally injured her shoulder overseas and won’t be back until sometime around the Olympic break. This team could struggle without the former Oregon star.

Las Vegas Aces

Like I mentioned above, the Aces are in a tier of their own. They’re my pick to pull off the three-peat.

A’ja Wilson

It’s an even-numbered year, so my pick for MVP is A’ja Wilson, who won the award in 2020 and 2022. Wilson was third in the MVP race last season, but she remains arguably the best player in the league, topping our Ranking The W list and offering a mixture of offensive moves and defensive awareness that makes her a nightmare to face on both ends of the floor. Wilson, who has won the last two Defensive Player of the Year awards and is my pick for that award again in 2024, is coming off a season in which she averaged a career-high 22.8 points per game. She also pulled down 9.5 boards per contest, also her best mark. Oh, and she set a career-high in blocks and tied her best mark in steals.

Caitlin Clark

I’m not going off the board here. Caitlin Clark is the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year — DraftKings Sportsbook has her at -800 to win the award, with Cameron Brink second in the odds at +1400. (Note: If you’re a betting person, take a chance on those Brink odds — really good value there, even if I think Clark is going to win the award with ease if she stays healthy.)

Clark’s ability to pull up and shoot from anywhere on the floor while also possessing elite-level court vision that allows her to make perfectly placed passes will make her a nightmare to defend in the W. Even if the shot takes a little time to come along in the pros as she adjusts to defensive pressure, her passing ability alone might be enough to get her the Rookie of the Year award.

Dana Evans

Last season, Dana Evans averaged 9.0 points per game, the most in her three-season WNBA career. She finished third in the voting for Sixth Player of the Year. This year, the Sky have a backcourt that’s pretty bereft of talent — Kahleah Copper and Courtney Williams, the team’s first and third leading scorers last season, respectively, are gone, and Evans should see 30-plus minutes of action just because of the roster makeup. With the green light to shoot the ball, Evans should have her best WNBA season yet in 2024, and a major leap in scoring production could catch the eye of Most Improved voters.

Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats Newsletter. If you like our work, be sure to check out our stats site, our podcast, and our social media accounts on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

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